IS/ISIS/Daesh - Losing ground, extending reach.

As IS/ISIS/Daesh loses more and more territory in Iraq, and prepares to defend their capital city, terror attacks claimed by them have hit the UK, Australia and Iran. And it is no coincidence that all these developments have come hand-in-hand.

Intelligence and security agencies across the globe - in the states who are fighting IS/ISIS/Daesh - have long feared that defeat of the jihadist in Iraq and Syria would lead to an increase in attacks on their homelands.

The UK and Australia (as part of the US-led Coalition including many Sunni Arab states) and Iran (part of a competing club with Russia and the Assad regime in Syria) are all prominently involved in fighting IS/ISIS/Daesh, and have now been targeted at home with attacks claimed by the group.

After three attacks in the UK, attackers seemingly affiliated with IS/ISIS/Daesh mobilised this past week in Melbourne, Australia, and in the capital city of the (Shia/Shiite) Islamic Republic of Iran. All three states will be dramatically reassessing their counter-terror measures as a consequence, as will many others globally.

Melbourne might be characterised a 'near-miss', with a speedy and decisive police intervention limiting the casualty count and ending a siege before it had really begun. 

But now the debate of the day in Australia, where I write from, is how police - in light of events in Melbourne and indeed in far-away London - will develop new shoot-to-kill tactics, and whether some should be armed with automatic assault firearms. New threats require new responses. 

IS/ISIS/Daesh are under assault across the Middle-East and North Africa (we take our eyes off the African dynamic at our peril) losing more territory by the day, all good news for the millions suffering under their truly brutal rule.

The downside of this success however will be more attempted attacks by IS/ISIS/Daesh from the UK to the US, from Russia to Australia, with the hope of undermining domestic public support for military action in the countries involved in the operations against them.

The first barometer of whether this might work will be in today's General Election in a UK, as the country votes while still reeling from three terror attacks. 

The Madrid al-Qaeda attack in 2004 changed the course of a national election, might IS/ISIS/Daesh have done the same in the UK in 2017?

You can thus be sure that IS/ISIS/Daesh and its supporters will be watching the result with particular interest.